(cross-posted on the AdWords Agency Blog)

New product launches trigger an enormous amount of online activity, and cause consumers to shop. And we know that search volume can predict all sorts of things, from unemployment to auto trends. Putting those together, we took a look at the smartphone industry. In our Smartphone Launch Predictor study, we uncovered factors that can maximize and predict product success.
One key takeaway is that aggregate search predicts smartphone sales, with over 90% accuracy.

Here are the key findings that show how marketers can predict, and increase, smartphone sales:

• Early buzz is a good sign: Maximize official press and marketing efforts early. Why? Pre-launch buzz, like online news stories is a top factor in propelling long-term search interest. We found that an extra 1,000 news stories in the weeks before launch will likely lead to a 9% boost in smartphone sales (compared to the situation if there are no news stories)

• Customers are searching earlier than you might expect: A whopping 52% of purchase-related searches occur before launch. This is a prime opportunity to reach customers when they’re interested in learning more about the product, as fewer marketers are running ads at this time

• End of the week availability rules: Some days of the week work better than others. The strongest sales figures correlate with Thursday and Fridays on-sale dates, so schedule messaging when it will generate the most interest

• Video is a key channel: Shoppers are taking a sneak peak at products before choosing a device: video views for smartphones increased 60% from 2010 to 2011. Video views during launch week generates great results. If a smartphone accrues 1 million video views during launch week launch, it will likely sell over 1.2M units in the 12 weeks after launch

• Ad clicks correlate closely: The higher the number of clicks on your search ads, the higher your sales - both online and in-store. How much? If a smartphone accrues 100,000 paid clicks during the 12 weeks after launch, it will likely sell over 1.3M units over the same period

• User research cycle: Before launch, shoppers tend to compare brands to explore the smartphone landscape. More detailed searching increases during the week of launch, when searches for smartphone reviews peak. And then, after launch, people dig into the details: searches for specific smartphone features and product issues hit their high points in the weeks after launch. Tailoring ad campaigns to this cycle is a big opportunity

• Buying one screen on many screens: As smartphone retailers know, screens are blurring and campaigns are becoming integrated. At launch week, an extra 25,000 searches for smartphones, from smartphones, predicts an increase in sales of 17%

For more insights, download the full research on smartphone sales predictors at Think With Google.

Posted by Matt Seitz, Technology team, Sr. Analytical Lead

(cross-posted on the Inside AdWords Blog) 

More and more people are falling in love with Valentine’s Day. According to a recent survey by ORC International, Valentine’s Day is now the number two gift giving holiday, right behind Christmas, with 88% of Americans saying they plan on giving a present to their loved ones. This should be great news for businesses, but marketers still have trouble making a love connection with consumers based on charts that look more like dated EKG readings than real-time insights into the heart of the consumer.

Since getting the affections of one person is hard enough, below are some timely insights from Google’s “database of intentions” to keep you ahead of the game as you create your Valentine’s Day campaigns.

Search is where the heart is
Already we’re seeing Google searches related to Valentine’s Day increase 35% compared to last year. Not only are more people searching, they’re searching earlier - last year people began looking for Valentine’s Day ideas on January 9th. This year the upward trend began two days earlier, on January 7th.

Across categories, jewelry is seeing a 42% increase in mobile and desktop queries compared to January of last year; gifts jumped 27%, and flowers saw an 18% spike.

Girls are made of sugar and spice and everything nice
The results from this graph show women look for gift ideas earlier and more often than their male significant others. Maybe men are more last minute about buying gifts than women, but it doesn’t mean they’re cheap about it! In 2011 the average man spent $158 for Valentine’s Day, about $80 more than women.

Looking for a change of heart?
Valentine’s Day is less than three weeks away, which means that this is this is the great opportunity for marketers to influence people with their products since consumers are still searching for ideas. If you look at the word cloud below (spoiler alert!), a good chunk of people are searching for “diy valentines gifts” and “valentines day baskets,” which means there will be quite a few people unwrapping homemade gifts or pre-made gift baskets this year. The biggest cluster of phrases, “valentines day border,” “valentines day drinks,” and “valentines day meals,” signal that people are also planning on celebrating in style. Now would be a good time to promote recipes and decoration ideas in your campaigns.

For more useful trends and tips for your campaign, download and review the 2012 Valentine’s Day Consumer Intentions Deck on Think Insights. Hopefully it helps you steal away some hearts!

Posted by Christina Park, Product Marketing Manager, Think with Google

Advertisers often wonder whether search ads cannibalize their organic traffic. If search ads were paused, would clicks on organic results increase, and make up for the loss in paid traffic? Google statisticians recently ran over 400 studies on paused accounts to answer this question.

In what we call “Search Ads Pause Studies”, our group of researchers observed organic click volume in the absence of search ads. Then they built a statistical model to predict click volume for given levels of ad spend. This model generates estimates for the incremental clicks attributable to search ads (IAC), or in other words, the percentage of paid clicks that are not made up for by organic clicks when search ads are paused.

On average, the incremental ad clicks percentage across verticals is 89%. This means that a full 89% of the traffic generated by search ads is not replaced by organic clicks when ads are paused. This number was consistently high across verticals:

You can find a video on the study here. The full study can be found on research.google.com.


Posted by Lizzy Van Alstine and David Chan, The Google Quant Management Team

Product placement on television is not a new concept, but the ever-increasing popularity of reality TV has changed the landscape of television programming. As of March 2011, Nielsen reported that 8 out of the 10 top shows with product placements were reality television programs. Product placement on reality TV has the ability to drive sales, but seconds of exposure don’t do much in providing value and differentiation in today’s product saturated media world. Whether these product placements were predetermined, or happen organically within the context of the show, search can play a critical role in these moments where consumers are looking to discover and engage with your brand.

There is undoubtedly a clear connection between television hot topics and increased product searches conducted. An example of this relationship can be seen by the number of searches that have been done in the past two months related to the outfits that “Bachelorette” Ashley Heber has been donning during her appearances on the long-running reality-hit “The Bachelorette”.

So what should retailers do to be prepared for this type of phenomenon?

Set up Google News alerts for your brand
If not a strategic product placement, it is difficult to predict when your brand will be featured on a reality T.V. show, but these types of items are often being blogged about and news alerts will give you a heads up about what is top of mind for your consumers.

Work with reality show to get trademark approval
If trademark approval is granted, language such as “…as seen on the Bachelor” could be used in an ad, which could potentially improve click-through rates. Similarly, another strategy could be to add keywords to your account related to a show that your product was featured on.

Consider using Product Listing Ads
This AdWords feature allows you to quickly and precisely capture missing, relevant queries without the need of updating your keywords. Product Listing Ads use your existing Merchant Center product feed, creating ads for the products you want to promote in a dynamic way.

These three items should help prepare retailers for the possible influx of searches on their brand when it is featured on a reality T.V. show.

All in all, this phenomenon reiterates the fact that searches do not happen in silos and that the online and offline world are inherently connected. Significant value can be gained for those businesses that understand these connections and are actively looking for ways to capitalize on the multi-channel aspects of search.


Posted by Liz Ott, The Google Retail Team